A survey shows most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under pressure brought by high interest rates.

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

  • natarey@lemmy.world
    31·
    1 year ago

    I mean, this article from from AP is what we’re all talking about:

    But even as overall price increases slow, it doesn’t mean inflation is reversing or that most prices are falling back to pre-pandemic levels. The consumer price index, the most widely followed measure of inflation, remains about 20% higher than it was before the pandemic.

    Milk prices, which have ticked down compared with the past year, are still 23% higher than they were pre-pandemic. Ground beef prices are 31% higher. Gas prices, despite a steep decline from a year ago, are still 46% higher than before the pandemic.

    Many economists say a key reason why so many Americans hold a gloomy view of the economy despite very low unemployment and steady hiring is that these prices — on items that they buy regularly — remain much higher than they were three years ago.

    https://apnews.com/article/inflation-prices-interest-rates-economy-federal-reserve-1f83d45fc6e30c6864d1b02913ec60c6

    Basically, the things that actually matter to most people – food, fuel, housing, utilities – remain more expensive than before the pandemic by significant margins. And those prices will never come back down. The best most can hope for is to earn more money to offset the price hike – which, for most people, means taking on new or additional employment just to be able to get back to where they were before the pandemic. People have lost ground. That’s the problem here.

    • Ranvier@sopuli.xyz
      11·
      1 year ago

      The whole point is on average people haven’t lost any ground cause compared to before the pandemic! None of these articles talk about the 20% increase in wages over this time, just the price increases. That’s wages per hour increasing by 20% mind you, not people taking up additional jobs.

      The ap has just picked a couple of the highest ones out of the entire index. Read the whole article. Not all the day to day essentials have increased that much. Average them all together and you get 20% increased cost of living over the last 4 years. Prices are 20% higher on average before the pandemic. Wages are also 20% higher on average. So real buying power is about where it was before the pandemic on average. Inflation month to month is barely even moving anymore, prices were unchanged September to October. Wages are increasing faster than inflation right now so things will continue to improve. But people aren’t walking around with their pay stubs from 2019 and 2023 while in the supermarket going, oh milk increased in price 20% over 4 years but it looks like my wage did to. People are psychologically hung up on the high price they see every day. And everytime we have a bird flu epidemic wiping out tens of millions of chickens in our horrible factory farms keeping things like eggs artificially cheap, reporters are right there ready to write sensational headlines and inflame people even more. There’s essentially nothing left to do from an inflation perspective at this point anymore, except keeping unemployment low and labor demand high so wage increases can continue and real wages can increase.

      Real wages December 2019 (meaning wages in relation to inflation anchored to 1982-1984 dollars): https://stats.bls.gov/news.release/archives/realer_01142020.pdf

      Real wages October 2023: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf

      If you look you’ll note they are higher now than then. Wage increases have compensated for inflation. But for the media “inflation back to normal slow steady pace, wage increases over the last four years have compensated, wages continue out pace inflation currently” just isn’t a very attention grabbing headline. Media will always be biased toward sensationalism.