Late last year, Elon Musk vowed to cut $2 trillion from the government’s budget with the help of his so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

It didn’t take long for that number to drop to $1 trillion, indicating little thought had gone into the original calculation.

And judging by the latest news, DOGE is woefully behind even that target. As the New York Times reports, Musk told Donald Trump this week that DOGE anticipated “savings in '26 from reduction of waste and fraud by $150 billion,” referring to the fiscal year that runs from October 2025 to the end of September 2026. (It’s even unclear if Musk meant that the so-called department had saved $150 billion so far, or if that was how much he’s now predicting it would save in total.)