Putin was a dictator that ruled through a strongman public persona. However, the leader of the mercenary group, demanding a change of the military’s top leadership and calling the premise of the entire war false, takes control of the main Russian city from which the offense on Ukraine is supported, is shown on video having the support of the city in public, and literally threatens to take Moscow with only ~5k troops. Russia’s military forces against Ukraine have been effectively cut off from logistical support. This happened in ~2 days. Meanwhile, while Putin flees in a plane, called the mercenary leader a traitor and said that he would be prosecuted for treason. The mercenary leader then backs away in the final moment, and flees to another country that brokered the negotiations. Putin drops charges and now the military is changing leadership.
They just showed how politically weak and scared Putin really is, not even having control of his own immediate subordinates. They outed that the reason for the war was a lie. They just lost the leader of the mercenary group. They just lost the city from which they support their offensive on Ukraine. They just showed how vulnerable Moscow is, and by a ridiculously small unit of 5k troops. They almost had a civil war.
My best guess is that a coup was successful, and Putin is no longer in charge. We just don’t know who really is in charge. They are keeping him there for a soft transfer of power, but a coup happened. The new Minister of Defense will terminate the offense on Ukraine, and the powers that control Russia will place a new face as president.
I’m not sure Russia gets to terminate the war at this point. Even stopping offensive actions wouldn’t meet Ukraine’s requirements. Russia needs to be expelled from all of Ukraine, including Crimea.
Putin is still in charge. That’s not going to change. The mercenary leader got what he wanted by sacking the Minister of Defense and busting open the false justification for the war. He never mentioned Putin as a bad guy in all of this. He only said the Ministry of Defense tricked Putin into the war and then didn’t fund it. Putin was weakened but is still in charge.
I think this is very accurate. He was absolutely weakened by this “rebellion,” but he is still the top guy. It will be interesting to see how this affects the war going forward.
The only reason he’s still in charge is that, weak as he may be, everyone else is weaker. Putin has spent the last two decades trying to ensure that nobody is stronger than he is, not so much by building himself up but rather by tearing everyone else down.
That’s been working for him in the short term, but I think this may be building up a really big problem for Russia in the longer term. When Putin finally does fall - as he surely will - there will be no succession plan and there will be nobody strong enough to step into his role.
Totally agree. Russia’s screwed in the long run regardless, he made sure of that. I’m a Russian immigrant, have been living in the US since 2001. I haven’t seen much future for my country since the 2012 election (it’s the last one I bothered to vote in, it became clear they were a total farce, and Vlady boy was making himself tsar). And then they attacked Ukraine. I lost all hope. I’m not wasting any time trying to make Russia better. I’d rather invest time and money into helping people hurt by them.
This is wild! Please correct me if I am wrong.
Putin was a dictator that ruled through a strongman public persona. However, the leader of the mercenary group, demanding a change of the military’s top leadership and calling the premise of the entire war false, takes control of the main Russian city from which the offense on Ukraine is supported, is shown on video having the support of the city in public, and literally threatens to take Moscow with only ~5k troops. Russia’s military forces against Ukraine have been effectively cut off from logistical support. This happened in ~2 days. Meanwhile, while Putin flees in a plane, called the mercenary leader a traitor and said that he would be prosecuted for treason. The mercenary leader then backs away in the final moment, and flees to another country that brokered the negotiations. Putin drops charges and now the military is changing leadership.
They just showed how politically weak and scared Putin really is, not even having control of his own immediate subordinates. They outed that the reason for the war was a lie. They just lost the leader of the mercenary group. They just lost the city from which they support their offensive on Ukraine. They just showed how vulnerable Moscow is, and by a ridiculously small unit of 5k troops. They almost had a civil war.
My best guess is that a coup was successful, and Putin is no longer in charge. We just don’t know who really is in charge. They are keeping him there for a soft transfer of power, but a coup happened. The new Minister of Defense will terminate the offense on Ukraine, and the powers that control Russia will place a new face as president.
Anyone else have a better guess?
I’m not sure Russia gets to terminate the war at this point. Even stopping offensive actions wouldn’t meet Ukraine’s requirements. Russia needs to be expelled from all of Ukraine, including Crimea.
They could terminate the war (by leaving) but not just the offence.
Putin is still in charge. That’s not going to change. The mercenary leader got what he wanted by sacking the Minister of Defense and busting open the false justification for the war. He never mentioned Putin as a bad guy in all of this. He only said the Ministry of Defense tricked Putin into the war and then didn’t fund it. Putin was weakened but is still in charge.
I think this is very accurate. He was absolutely weakened by this “rebellion,” but he is still the top guy. It will be interesting to see how this affects the war going forward.
The only reason he’s still in charge is that, weak as he may be, everyone else is weaker. Putin has spent the last two decades trying to ensure that nobody is stronger than he is, not so much by building himself up but rather by tearing everyone else down.
That’s been working for him in the short term, but I think this may be building up a really big problem for Russia in the longer term. When Putin finally does fall - as he surely will - there will be no succession plan and there will be nobody strong enough to step into his role.
Totally agree. Russia’s screwed in the long run regardless, he made sure of that. I’m a Russian immigrant, have been living in the US since 2001. I haven’t seen much future for my country since the 2012 election (it’s the last one I bothered to vote in, it became clear they were a total farce, and Vlady boy was making himself tsar). And then they attacked Ukraine. I lost all hope. I’m not wasting any time trying to make Russia better. I’d rather invest time and money into helping people hurt by them.