please post any subsequent updates here unless they’re huge happenings. i just woke up and half our news front page is updates which is nice but also A Lot and most of these don’t have to be their own thread
Well that was… weird.
I saw several alleged videos of russian frontline units pledging their support for Prigozhin. Combine that with how little resistance wagner faced and Putin might have realized how weak his position is and given in to replacing MOD staff. Not a good look the same day he declared Prigozhin a traitor and promised punishment.
Trading the long-term stability for the short-term. Because now every aspiring russian warlord know that if you don’t like something about the state, all you need is just a big enough private army to bully the kremlin, lol.
What a weird outcome. Putin now looks weak and Prigozhin looks stupid for trusting any deal that Putin could make.
I wonder how many russians are actually happy with this outcome. Kremlin loyalist must be depressed, since their leader basically turned into a puppet. And the extreme wagner supporters wanted it to go all the way. So both sides hardcode supporters are now depressed. Some wagner members probably just wanted putin to concede even after his speech so they may be happy. Civilians that support none may be happy that their society didn’t collapse and cities turned to war zones.
Ukrainians are disappointed that the distraction didn’t last a little longer, but none the less content with a weakened Russia.
“Opportunity to return to Africa.”
Yeah, I suppose massacring badly equipped CAR “rebels” (while also guarding their diamond mines) and civilians is a lot more fun than having to fight someone being equipped by the military-industrial complex of the combined West.
Edit: oh and related to how many Russians are happy with this, this Mastodon post had some numbers from a Russian political blogger:
A popular Russian political blogger Tatiana Stanovaya ran a poll on her Telegram earlier today, asking: “how do you feel about the current situation”
Votes:
- 12% supporting Prigozhin
- 48% “let them fight, there are no heroes here”
- 29% “this is a catastrophe, I’m scared”
- 8% against the coup
- 3% “give power to the people”
The numbers will be skewed due to the audience, but still interesting>
Those figures can’t be at all reassuring to Putin.
This is nothing new. Politics has long involved compromise. Hardliners rarely get what they want.
Just had a thought, what if Putin has taken Prigozhin’s family hostage and pretending to take the deal is just a play for time while they rescue them? It would be a great movie plot.
What if the Ukrainians paid Wagner to do this to cause a distraction? That would be pretty crazy too!
I mean, what would Wagner do once they reach Moscow? Sit at Putins desk and start giving orders? No one would listen, they’d all still take orders from Putin sitting in St Petersburg or just quit an go home and wait it out.
I imagine they would take over the city, and completely destabilize Russia.
It doesn’t matter if nobody wants to listen to you if you become the local law enforcement.
And soon Russia will face the same problem as Iraq and Afghanistan did
Probably just re-enact Jan 6 but Russian for the propaganda points, then skedaddling before the hammer comes down.
I don’t know why anyone is taking any of this seriously. For all we know, this was done to lure Ukraine into following them into Russia to fall into a set trap, or theater or withdraw and resupply without looking weak. It is odd that it looks like Putin had weakness, but they can always say that’s what it was later and the propaganda will work like it always does.
Do you really think Ukraine has an interest in following them into Russia? If I was them I would just want to take back Ukraine and secure the borders.
They don’t. But Putin in his own disinformation bubble may think so.
They currently have an operation attacking into Russia’s boarder…
Only if you accept Russia’s description of where the border is. The border as defined by every other country in the entire world says Ukraine is still in their own territory.
There have been some Ukrainian sympathisers setting off bombs/shooting down aircraft/etc inside Russian territory - but those aren’t Ukranian soldiers and they’re pretty generally just a few random/nonconsequential attacks and don’t show any signs of being linked to any “Operation”. The front line of the battlefield is nowhere near the border.
No, it’s documented and reported by Ukraine and US as they counterattacked on Russian soil and it was an issue because of the US supplying weapons to them: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/05/29/an-increasing-number-of-ukrainian-attacks-on-russian-soil-are-upsetting-the-united-states-and-kyiv-s-allies_6028312_4.html
I think you watch to many movies real life isn’t that well planned most likely he got mad launched an ill planned invasion then made a deal with putin when both realized they could lose everything fighting each other
It would be weird to shoot down friendly helicopters and launch cruise missiles at friendly formations just to make a big feint.
Ukraine just needs to take the land bridge to Crimea, I don’t see they have any incentive to go inwards towards Russia.
Well, it would certainly be a massive moral blow to Russia if Ukraine just up and freed Crimea. The bigger challenge would be installing a leader that isn’t going to turn around and give the country back to Putin.
Do we know for certain that any of that happened though? Because I haven’t seen any video of actual engagement between Wagner and Russia.
Well, here’s some footage with a shot down C&C plane. I mean it still could be not Wagner, but it would be an awful coincidence.
I mean we still don’t know shit beyond the fact that Ukraine is holding strong and slowly reclaiming territory. The thing about this story is that it shows that the Russians are divided, and that’s not a picture you want to show in a war, especially to your people. These events are costing the Russians dearly in one way or another.
Trying to constantly remind myself that none of us are immune to propaganda, and that it would be really easy for this scenario to be misrepresented as a clean-sweep against the Russian military. Wagner’s def gonna cause serious problems but I’d frankly be shocked if this ended with a successful coup or any meaningful change
Even if they win, this dude is a literal war monger fascist. Not better or worse than Putin.
Actually Prigozhin is arguably waaayyyy worse. Putin is a ruthless warlord just like Prigozhin, yes. They have equally virulent ideologies, yep.
But Putin is a politician first and Prigozhin is 100% not. Say what you want of Putin but deep down he still gives a shit about projecting certain images of control, law, etc – he still values the opinion of certain international communities. He is still the leader of a government, not just a battalion or an army.
Prigozhin doesn’t give a shit about any of that, he is a simple and ruthless warlord without any pretense of governance at all, who only understands force and who has no qualms about being open in his toxic ideologies.
I think it’s extraordinarily unlikely Prigozhin actually accomplishes any of his own goals towards Russia because he isn’t a politician and he’s just a thug, but I also think it’s equally unlikely Putin’s Russia recovers from this. Wagner was Putin’s pitbull. They were virtually the entirety of professional real soldiers Russia had under its command. No more pit bull changes things dramatically. We can easily expect a social “downgrade” of Russia’s status as superpower in the eyes of other nations. That leaves some big doors open for China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and of course, the United States.
We may be on the cusp of a second break up of the USSR, further breaking Russia down into disparate nationstates. That possibility offers a lot of problems on its own. It’s no longer a question of “rogue warlord gains control of russian nukes”, now its “russian nukes don’t exist, now those nukes belong to 15 new whatever-istan nations, each without any pre-existing relationships or treaties”. That’s scarier. Doubly so because in that big muck of former Russian states, Wagner could still be around in the middle of it with the biggest dick on the block. He’d predictably go Atilla, march through every one of them and conscript every dude over 16 to fight. And history tells us over and over just how those situations end: global-scale wars. Conqueror types never stop, they just keep conquering until they get stopped.
Beau has three videos out on it already. He’s really good for context on military things.
deleted by creator
I am going to be glued to Kbin all day for this. This won’t stop the Ukrainian invasion though, will it? It sounded like things will be continuing as they have but under a different leader. There’s no real “benefit” to Ukraine in this, is there?
Without the Wagner group, Russia will have much lesser professional troops on their side. And this entire thing could also have a severe impact on the morale of the soldiers.
Iran called the attempted armed rebellion an internal affair of Russia, expressed support for the rule of law in the country.
source: https://t.me/rian_ru/206869
“we support the winning side”
For context: I’m Estonian. Our nation has a great deal of history with Russian imperialism, under both tsarist and soviet rules. Even Putin has threatened us before. So clearly I’m not a supporter of the Russian regime or their imperialistic ambitions. However, I’m going to present an unpopular opinion.
The balkanization of Russia, if it were to happen, would not be beneficial in the long run. At least not for the people at large.
Yes, the big western cities would be a lot more liberal and open to democracy than the vast countryside. However, we need to consider the fact that different Russian oblasts have VAST differences in economic power. The big cities will thrive on their own, sure, but their tax money would then no longer be used to help people in the more remote regions. Not that these regions are getting a lot of attention now, but at least under a different regime for the current Russian nation as it is, it’d be possible to improve infrastructure, education, industry, etc. for towns in remote oblasts.
And leaving those people farther and farther behind, will cause new unrests. And definitely there would be military dictatorships who promise better lives, etc.
Therefore, a division of Russia into small states might actually cause more issues in the long run. Not that I’m a fan of it staying intact either.
It’s a choice between two evils of unknown magnitude, the only good thing is that none of us are the ones making that choice so we don’t have to live with it on our consciences.
The big cities will thrive on their own, sure, but their tax money would then no longer be used to help people in the more remote regions.
As an Australian, I assure you it is possible for a country of “big cities” to fund activity in remote areas. I won’t say we do it a perfect job of it here, but we do a decent enuogh job and some of our remote towns are far more remote than anything in the northern hemisphere. Some Australian towns are several hours by airplane to the nearest city and don’t even have a reliable source of water. And yet, the people living there have relatively comfortable lives.
The problem in my mind is that the big cities and the remote areas would likely become separate countries, so there’ll be about a 100x difference in GDP per capita between the richest and poorest post-Russian nations.
Having some of these countries turn into democracies is better than having none of these countries turn into democracies. Large countries like Russia cannot cohesively rule over its populace without establishing some sort of dictatorship. Democracy in Russia didn’t last because there were too many rich oligarchs corrupting government power back to a form they could control. China is in the same category.
If they have any hope to establish and maintain a democracy, the country must be broken up.
Nice theory but it doesn’t hold up very well. Both Canada and Australia are enormous countries that are both well functioning democracies.
There are a number of great sources that describe the conditions for good democracies - and intolerance of corruption is a vital condition. That’s something that has never really been taken seriously in Russia, so in some ways it’s no surprise it’s come to this.
About 90% of Canada lives 100 miles from the southern border, so I wouldn’t call the whole country “populated”. Australia is in a similar situation with its deserts. Sure, Russia also has cold, sparsely populated regions, but most of the landmass is still habitable.
Even then, Russia is still twice as large as both of those countries, and has at least double the population density.
It might cause more issues in those states but wouldn’t each of them be weaker? I don’t know how to fix Russia, but if it can’t be fixed I’d rather they not be strong enough to attack other countries.
Depends on whether they’ll manage to get control of the nukes. They’re likely stashed all around the nation, but the question is how difficult it would be to gain launch capability, since the existing infrastructure would likely not be usable by local militaries.
We’re also talking about the potential suffering of millions of people.
Chances are decent that the nukes don’t work any more, so that may not be a threat at all.
I’m still reluctant to put that hypothesis to the test, though, for obvious reasons…
I doubt the tritium is being reliably refilled, but a second stage fizzle is still a disaster, and I’m sure at least some of them can still create a sizable explosion
Right you are. I also wonder whether the rockets all still work, but as you say, at least some of them probably still do.
If Moscow stations start playing this, it’s a probable sign that the Coup is legitimate and the transition has started. Bonkers to think think that in our lifetime we’d see the collapse of a nuclear power. Even if Putin and his government survive this Coup, I don’t think he’ll have any political capital left to lead. By 8:00pm EDT, we’ll have a pretty good idea who’s left standing.
Wait, how could we possibly have a good idea TODAY? Aren’t they in Rustov, almost 1000 km from Moscow?
There are reports of gunfire at half-way between Rostov and Moscow already. But yeah, I don’t think they will manage to reach close to Moscow within a day https://nitter.net/igorsushko/status/1672434377425551361#m
My pet hypothesis is that Putin and Prigozhin were engaging in a bit of play acting to stage Wagner troops for an action against Ukraine (Prigozhin benefits) and illustrate the legal and financial measures that Putin will take against powerful dissenters (Putin benefits).
With 25k troops, there’s simply no way Wagner could have succeeded in a coup. The regular army is better equipped and could have severed their supply lines with minimal effort, starving the coup with minimal bloodshed. They could have done this in their own interests, and not necessarily in defense of Putin.
Considering how swiftly Wagner’s offices were raided and their assets seized, this affair makes more sense as a morality tale to caution antsy oligarchs than as a military action.
Putin declared Prigozhin a traitor on national TV, then fled Moscow, then gave Prigozhin everything he asked for and let him walk away. All within a day. This wasn’t some 5D chess nonsense. Putin just surrendered.
Putin hasn’t done anything yet except flee to safety yet, he doesn’t personally hold a gun in moscow to hold it as his own. A surrender would mean a civil war in wagner’s favor. Currently not at that point of desperation but we are getting there. An interesting situatiuon nevertheless.
Putin’s absolutely still in charge of Russia until someone else tries something. He still lost to Wagner though. Prigozhin got everything he wanted out of his little stunt. Putin caved because he was afraid.
Despite what a lot of people have said, this wasn’t about Prigozhin trying to pull off a coup. Wagner was supposed to be absorbed into the Russian army, and rumor had it that Prigozhin was going to be in serious trouble when that happened. Now he gets to take his still independent army to Belarus and got his enemies in the MoD fired. Prigozhin got what he wanted, and Putin couldn’t stop him.
Where does this information come from. All I’ve heard is the Wagner guys aren’t heading towards Moscow and some deal was made involving the president of Belarus. Are there specifics that have been made public?
Several news sites are reporting that part of the deal was for Prigozhin to go and live in Belarus. It’s not clear whether he’s supposed to take the Wagner troops with him, but there are questions about their loyalty to him now, since he may have set them up to be absorbed into the Russian army.
I haven’t been able to figure out from any of the arti Lea I’ve seen… What is it that Putin ended up giving to Prigozhin? What was Prigozhin asking for?
You give too much credit to putin and prigozhin in terms of strategies thinking. Usually when things seem simple they are and in this case it’s just short term vision by both sides and signs of weakness in both as well. It’s really funny how some people try to spin this situation as “putin staged it all to draw Ukraine into a trap and to show his strength”
There’s something up. Both putin and Wagners head aren’t stupid.
I feel it’s a plan to justify future actions.
Yes, Poutine highly control GRU with an iron glove, and Wagner is controlled by GRU. It’s a masquerade to kick choigou and guerassimov because they are bad.
I think this is legitimately the commander of the most elite force being fed up that his men are dying in a losing war and his recommendations falling on deaf ears. His “I need ammo” video from a few weeks ago certainly wasn’t part of some grand masquerade either, the city’s supply lines were just destroyed by Ukrainian artillery.
He’s not demanding Putin out, he’s demanding changes in military leadership to properly supply and command the war forces. He can’t just leave the war at this point, so he had to do something drastic otherwise most of his forces will end up as casualties. It also gives him some setup to actually leave the war if his demands aren’t met.
All of this “highly controlled” talk has gotten a little hyperbolic given recent events. I think there’s serious reason to think Putin has an at least somewhat loose control of everything except the oligarchs and GRU. He absolutely has the wealth and kompromat that is claimed and there’s no question he’s had several oligarchs assassinated, but beyond that it appears his control and oversight is relatively weak. Probably because competent people are dangerous to give too much power to. Look at Prigozhin, he’s far from being capable of knocking Putin down but he’s still starting to make demands.
What happens when you give barely competent and corrupt people the majority of the military leadership roles? Ukraine - the best equipped troops were sent in first but the plan barely went beyond that and went completely tits up once those forces got wiped out. They keep outrunning the supply lines of what little they do have. Morale is in free fall.
I don’t think Putin is close to getting ousted, but for the same reason Russia can’t be more than a barely functional country. There just aren’t enough competent people in powerful positions that he trusts/can control to run a country.
Thanks for your insight :)
